Self-driving Hype vs Self-parking Reality
Form vs Substance in SmartCities
“There are three types of people in this world. Firstly, there are people who make things happen. Then there are people who watch things happen. Lastly, there are people who are neither “doers” nor “watchers” — all they do, is keep repeatedly asking: what’s going on?” — Steve Backley
As expected, my recent interactions with Venture Capital (VC) community are both: challenging and rewarding. The receptivity to my innovative offering posted in Plan B Ventures — The Last Call… has been OUTSTANDING. And it means one thing for sure: questions! — frequent, blunt, in-your-face questions, without anesthetics!
Since I expressed so many doubts about seeing truly autonomous, self-driving cars roaming city streets in the next 5 years — I’m frequently asked: what other IoT developments are already affecting SmartCities today, in a profound and meaningful manner?
So how do you answer a complex question, on the spot, and without taking the time to THINK?
Well, my answer shouldn’t surprise you as I already wrote about it in my post describing THE POWER OF THE OPPOSITES — entitled: The Inquiring Mind
Admittedly, I blogged last month on our website, linkedin and twitter about an annoying AI bubble — in relation to self-driving cars. In a post entitled: Are you ready to fly your wife and kids WITHOUT a pilot?
I spoke about transportation safety and emphasized that the first aircraft autopilot was developed by Sperry Corporation in 1912. It was more than 100 years ago! And yet, we are still expecting to see a pilot in a cockpit. Don’t we?
In: On AI, Autopilots, Self-Driving Cars….and the Bee Question — my aim was to point out that we need more rigor in managing AI expectations.
Not a week is passing by, without a strong urge to point out how some of the headlines are misleading. I don’t mind how much money is being spent on building the hype — as long as shareholders of various corporations DO UNDERSTAND that self-driving is still nothing more than an experiment. Perhaps it is one of the most EXPENSIVE commercial experiments ever conducted — but let’s call the spade, spade.
Putting the OPPOSITES THEORY to the test — let me ask you: What is the opposite to SELF-DRIVING? The answer: SELF-PARKING.
So at this point, I would like to shift into an area that hasn’t received self-driving cars’ coverage and tell you why it should. I am talking about an enormous impact of self-parking technologies and applications on SmartCities — all over the world!
Self-parking Evolution — PGS 1.0
In most modern urban environments, the number of cars is growing rapidly. The availability of public parking spaces in large cities cannot satisfy the increase in demand. For years, parking infrastructure management systems failed to control free parking spaces. As a result, quite often, the driver wasn’t able to find an empty space, quickly — and had to circle around creating traffic jams.
Early solutions to such problems comprised of Parking Guidance Systems (PGS) 1.0 aiming at:
· Guiding drivers directly to the first available space
· Reducing congestion, idling-pollution and stress under time pressure
· Saving time and money to drivers and facility owners/managers
Municipalities, garage owners and operators, quickly realized that PGS can enhance customer service & satisfaction, in particular, PGS can:
· Increase customer loyalty and repeat visits
· Improve profits and economics
· Increase rate of filling parking spaces
· Increase property value
· Prevent excess queues at the entrance
· Offer competitive advantage and ability to raise hourly rates
Historically, the proliferation of PGS 1.0 systems has been much stronger in Europe than it was in N/A. In spite the fact that parking is a $25 billion industry in the U.S. — it operated for years in a conventional manner, with little focus on innovation and smart parking.
According to Frost & Sullivan reports, a quarter-billion registered U.S. passenger vehicles remain parked more than 90 percent of the time. The total number of parking spaces in the 28 EU countries is estimated to be 440 million, while North America has 800 million spaces from 40,000 garages and surface parking lots.
It has been estimated that over 30 percent of traffic in a city is caused by drivers whom are searching for a parking spot. Inefficient and mismanaged parking systems result in congestion and increased carbon emissions, thereby wasting commuters’ time and affecting productivity and economic opportunities.
For example, European Parking Association (EPA) has emphasized for years, that creating more parking spaces on a street and at surface parking lots, jeopardizes quality of public domain and space for pedestrians in central urban areas.
And in spite of realization by National Parking Association that pricing elasticity of parking spaces can be based on the value to the end-user and time-based (eg. location, safety, convenience and time of day, etc., etc.) — the costs associated with PGS installations remained high, for years.
So why only so little has been done in N/A during PGS 1.0 era? Perhaps, once more, …..”it’s the economy stupid?” Below, is a simple calculation describing the cost of a typical PGS 1.0 — servicing 500, 1,000 and 2,000 cars.
Even a small multi-level parking garage with an overall capacity of only 500 cars, requires ~$40,000 CapEx and a minimum of $2,000 maintenance fee, on top of the installation costs.
Welcome To PGS 2.0
Once more, according to Frost & Sullivan reports, the total smart parking market revenue in Europe and North America stood at $7.05 billion in 2014 and is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18% to reach $43.56 billion in 2025. Specific growth opportunities are expected for parking operators through increasing technology-enabled parking solutions.
Forget shiny LED signs installed by parking operators — PGS 2.0 is an IoT brain-child. It is all about the buzz phrases, such as deep learning, AI, predictive analytics and natural language processing.
However, this time, the cities are firmly in charge. PGS 2.0 is just one of the ESSENTIAL SmartCity solutions. Be it Barcelona, New York, San Francisco, Amsterdam, Los Angeles — you name it.
Since cities consume ¾ of the world’s energy and produce ~80% of the world’s carbon emissions, reducing transportation congestion and improving the quality of life in cities — is a top priority to city planners.
In particular, San Francisco, offers detailed Project Evaluation documents, technical data manuals, and specifications — allowing any municipality to learn from their experiences and follow in their footsteps, painlessly.
SFpark is the brand for SFMTA’s approach to parking management. The city piloted and cultivated several emerging technologies, including smart meters, parking sensors, and a sophisticated data management tool.
Not surprisingly, SFMTA used several strategies to make it easier to find a parking space and improve the parking experience, including:
· Demand-responsive pricing
· Making it easier to pay at meters and avoid citations
· Longer time limits
· Improved user interface and product design
· Improved information for drivers, including static
· directional signs to garages and real-time information
· about where parking is available on- and off-street
· Highly transparent, rules-based, and data-driven approach to making changes to parking prices
Add electric vehicles to the mix and the need for ever increasing build-out of charging stations — and PGS 2.0 has reached the TIPPING POINT. City after city has finally realized that outdated parking meters are their most undervalued FACTOR ENDOWMENT.
On-street charging stations, multi-storey parking garages, shopping centers, hotels and restaurants — can all be integrated with PGS 2.0 apps. In turn, it will secure city revenues from captive customers.
Peer-to-peer (P2P) parking, online parking reservation, and mobile parking payment solutions are already here. Smart self-parking is expected to become an important component of SmartCities’ revenues.
Companies such as Streetline are predicting SmarCities increasing revenue from parking by an average of 20–30%
It’s worth mentioning that the cost of PGS 2.0 is an ORDER OF MAGNITUDE less expensive than its predecessor. Wireless magnetic sensors accurately detect the presence of vehicles. The sensors contain a built-in battery, last 5 years, or more, and contain the latest wireless communication components. It takes only a few minutes to install flush-mounted or surface-mounted sensors — as they can be glued to any surface.
Similarly, wireless installations are quick to deploy and easy to maintain. All electric cables and expensive harnesses are gone, and so are the bright LED displays. GPS-assisted phone apps are doing the job — reliably.
And last, but not least, wireless deployment is often based on ZigBee Open Standard — created explicitly for control of sensors. This technology is based on IEEE 802.15.4 International Standard — which allows for low-cost, low-power, secure operability between sensory networks. It was designed from the ground-up to be simpler and less expensive than Bluetooth, or Wi-Fi.
The Bottom Line: PGS 2.0 offers unique SelfParking opportunity to many municipalities — today! SmartCities without any prior PGS expertise CAN SKIP THE ENTIRE GENERATION OF TECHNOLOGIES — developed years ago. And city planners can bring powerful PGS 2.0 deployments to urban transportation — anywhere in the world.
I have seen similar phenomenon back in late 90’s — while on assignment from The World Bank in Estonia. After learning about money laundering detection expertise of International Neural Machines Inc. (my AI-based, pattern recognition startup) and our interactions with FinCEN in Washington and FINTRAC in Ottawa — I was asked to visit Tallinn, Estonia, in order to meet with Estonia’s Central Bank officials.
On my way to Estonia, I had a stop-over in Stockholm, Sweden — staying few days at the local Sheraton Hotel. Internet connection at the hotel was very slow and very expensive. It felt like a dial-up modem clunker.
So imagine my surprise, when I discovered tens of free-of-charge, high-speed, fiber-optic Internet terminals — at Tallinn’s airport. It was financed by EU shortly before my arrival, but for some reason, seemed to fit quite nicely within a modern terminal building….
Oleg Feldgajer is President & CEO of Canada Green ESCO Inc. Oleg is positioning the company to become a leader in financing AI enhanced green energy projects and ventures. CGE’s mission is to guide DISRUPTIVE businesses in ENERGY & TRANSPORTATION toward profitable business models. Oleg is passionate about such mission, and firmly believes that without AI based innovation, we will all prematurely choke on polluted air and dirty water. CGE delivers 100% financing (levered and unlevered) to its clients — and utilizes large equity pools, and non-recourse debt. Oleg offers creative, fresh ideas to open-minded businesses — that embrace both: logic AND opportunistic intuition. CGE stands against mediocrity & its modus operandi is quite simple: If CGE is not invited to join your BOD, or Advisory Board — we failed!
